TotalEnergies

Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 17/03/25, 09:00 CET.

Company Update:
The U.S. Export-Import Bank has confirmed a $4.7bn loan, the largest single tranche of financing for TotalEnergies' $20bn Mozambique LNG project. This significantly de-risks the project’s capital structure, reinforcing momentum for a restart. TotalEnergies (26.5%) halted the project in 2021 following Islamic State-linked insurgent attacks in Cabo Delgado. Security risks persist, compounded by Mozambique’s contested 2024 elections, where Frelimo’s Daniel Chapo secured victory amid fraud allegations. These factors have pushed back the anticipated late-2024 restart. The project now awaits the final $1.15bn investment from UK Export Finance (UKEF). However, with $15bn secured in 2020, UKEF’s potential withdrawal is unlikely to derail the project. 

Expert Opinion: 
While there are still uncertainties on that project, this is excellent news for Total as the project could have a significant impact on the LNG production profile of the group. Total is still a stock to hold and buy in the long run. Stock trades at a PE of 8.4x for 2025 and 8.1x for 2026 and the dividend yield is close to 6% and secure. However, over the very short run, uncertainty on the price of oil is capping somewhat the price appreciation of Total. For the moment, we maintain our Brent forecasts at $71/bbl, $68/bbl, and $66/bbl over FY25–27. 


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