BP
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 10/02/25, 09:00 CET.
Company update:
Elliott management is said to have taken a significant (yet undisclosed) stake in BP and is expected toc all for transformative measures. This comes after years of BP’s underperformance with a clear and massive switch from Oil and Gas production to renewables. Indeed BP is the only major to plan for a decline in its oil production in 2030 (-25% vs 2019). This and other scandals from the previous CEO meant that BP had the worst performance within our coverage.
We believe that this pressure from Elliott is a positive even though it remains unclear what exactly this minority shareholder can do.
It is worth noting that Elliott has a successful track record when it comes to investing in energy company (Hess and Marathon notably). We believe they will push for a lesser focus on renewables and to boost Oil and gas production going forward.
Note that BP will release its Q4 numbers tomorrow and will hold a CMD on FEB 26th
Expert opinion:
While there already was an expectation that the group could refocus on oil rather than renewables (leading to a partial rerating over the past few months), this will increase the pressure. We are still cautious on the production profile of BP vs its peers but one can assume it can only improve. The CMD will; therefore be key to monitor. Over the short term, the oil environment may prove tricky as the motto Drill Baby Drill may lead to lower oil prices, a negative overall for oil majors.
Yet we are still of the view that over the long run the main problem of oil is that we will run out of it before we find a suitable and efficient replacement. Could BP , currently considered the ugly duckling in the industry, turn into an Oil and Gas swan ?.It is possible that expectations on this move are too high and that the CMD could prove a disappointment to investors. At least it is worth having it on your radar.
A clear net positive in our opinion.(But we still like Total and Shell better on the long run).
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
Company update:
Elliott management is said to have taken a significant (yet undisclosed) stake in BP and is expected toc all for transformative measures. This comes after years of BP’s underperformance with a clear and massive switch from Oil and Gas production to renewables. Indeed BP is the only major to plan for a decline in its oil production in 2030 (-25% vs 2019). This and other scandals from the previous CEO meant that BP had the worst performance within our coverage.
We believe that this pressure from Elliott is a positive even though it remains unclear what exactly this minority shareholder can do.
It is worth noting that Elliott has a successful track record when it comes to investing in energy company (Hess and Marathon notably). We believe they will push for a lesser focus on renewables and to boost Oil and gas production going forward.
Note that BP will release its Q4 numbers tomorrow and will hold a CMD on FEB 26th
Expert opinion:
While there already was an expectation that the group could refocus on oil rather than renewables (leading to a partial rerating over the past few months), this will increase the pressure. We are still cautious on the production profile of BP vs its peers but one can assume it can only improve. The CMD will; therefore be key to monitor. Over the short term, the oil environment may prove tricky as the motto Drill Baby Drill may lead to lower oil prices, a negative overall for oil majors.
Yet we are still of the view that over the long run the main problem of oil is that we will run out of it before we find a suitable and efficient replacement. Could BP , currently considered the ugly duckling in the industry, turn into an Oil and Gas swan ?.It is possible that expectations on this move are too high and that the CMD could prove a disappointment to investors. At least it is worth having it on your radar.
A clear net positive in our opinion.(But we still like Total and Shell better on the long run).
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
Subscribe to our blog
Alphavalue Morning Market Tip
Solid start of 2025 with signs of recovery in key markets.