TotalEnergies

Company Update:
The group confirms its 2030 trajectory, with Oil & Gas production growth above 3% per year and +$10bn of FCF by 2030.

Beyond 2030, production would plateau around 3 Mboe/d until 2035, subject to projects still to be sanctioned. The main change is on shareholder returns, with a floor of at least 5% annual DPS growth to 2030 (5.9% this year) and gearing below 10% from end-2026 (13.1% at end-June), to be maintained through the cycle. The 40% payout is unchanged. The Q4 buyback rises to $2.6bn from $1.5bn in Q3.

Integrated Power is where the ambition increases the most. Output would double from 60 TWh to 120 TWh by 2030, while the 2030 FCF contribution rises from $2bn to $2-3bn. The cash-flow positive target still relies partly on farm-downs, with $2bn already built into the 2027-32 framework. On the upstream side, the 2027-32 capex envelope increases by $1bn to $15-17bn to fund post-2030 gas projects, with $15-16bn in 2027.

We remain more cautious on execution. Tilenga first oil moves to H1 2027, Ratawi Phase 1 slips to Q4 2026, and North Field faces equipment constraints linked to Hormuz. Management maintains its 2030 guidance without assuming a prolonged closure of the Strait and provided no downside scenario, which we see as the main blind spot.

Namibia offers the main upside. The Venus plateau is raised to 160 kb/d, with FID expected in the coming months, while drilling at Mopane should start in mid-November.

Overall, the CMD extends the horizon and strengthens shareholder returns without materially changing the growth trajectory. Execution remains the key point to watch if Hormuz stays closed, but the broader equity story remains supportive, with strong exposure to refining, US LNG growth and upstream production growth. 

Expert Opinion:
We still like oils overall and Total in particular even if the fundamental upside is more limited at this stage. CF generation is strong and div yield stands and the company is buying EUR7bn of its own shares (i.e. total shareholder return of EUR15bn of a mkt cap of EUR192bn). 

Valuation remains attractive with PE at 7.3x for 2026. While earnings are expected to normalize in 2027 and 2028 we still have a PE2028 below 9x, which remains attractive. 


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