Swedbank

Company Update:
Topline were down 2% yoy but still a nice 8% better than expected.

Pretax results were a 16% beat.

ROE stood at 15.8% in Q4, above the 15% guidance.

The group will pay a SEK21.7 dividend, MUCH higher than our expectation of SEK14.1.

Swedbank’s management expects economic growth to pickup in 2025/26 in Sweden and Baltics, leading to a potential more positive development in lending volumes in 2025, mitigating part of the pressure coming from remaining rate cuts to be implemented by the Riksbank and the ECB.

The bank guides for SEK26.5bn costs in 2025, based on 2024 year-end FX rates (slightly above 2024 guidance). Over the long-term, the group looks to target an above-15% RoE target. Swedbank indicated it will present an updated strategic plan before Summer 2025.

Expert Opinion:
Another strong print from Swedbank and the dividend upgrade is a nice surprise. I have been cautious on the name but wrongly so. The X read is positive for other Swedish banks or Dankse, probably less for DNB.