Novo Nordisk
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 07/05/25, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
Expert Opinion:
Despite the lowered sales outlook (+13% -+21% vs +16%-+24%) previously, Novo will still record the best topline growth within our coverage over the foreseeable future. Despite that expected growth Novo trades in line with the sector in 25 (PE of 15.4x vs 15.2x for the sector) and with a sharp discount in 2026 (12.6x vs 13.7x). Fears on Novo future are way too excessive and Novo is now our expert's top pick in the sector. At current price (and even more so if stock is down more today), Novo is the stock to buy and hold in the sector.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
Company Update:
Q1 sales came in in line at DKK78.1bn, surging c.18% lfl.
Operating profit increased 20% to DKK38.8bn, 5% better than expected.
In Q1 Wegovy sales reached DKK17.4bn (+83%) but below consensus of DKK19bn. This was offset by strong performances of other products in the diabetes segment (51% of sales +34%)
Guidance 25 was cut with sales and operating profit are expected to grow in the range of 13-21% (vs. 16-24% previously) and 16-24% (vs. 19-27% previously), respectively.
The main reason for the revised guidance is the impact of the shortage of products that enabled competitors to produce substitutes to GLP1 products. These shortages are now over and this effect will disappear going forward.
We will likely trim our 2025 numbers on the back of the new guidance and so will the consensus. However we maintain our positive recommendation on Novo Nordisk, considering that:
1/ it is still a dominant force in diabetes and rapidly growing obesity markets,
2/ it benefits from a healthy pipeline of drugs and
3/ its robust balance sheet will help source external innovation.
Novo’s 2025e P/E of c.15x being lower than that of Novartis and AstraZeneca speaks of Novo’s attractiveness at current levels.
1/ it is still a dominant force in diabetes and rapidly growing obesity markets,
2/ it benefits from a healthy pipeline of drugs and
3/ its robust balance sheet will help source external innovation.
Novo’s 2025e P/E of c.15x being lower than that of Novartis and AstraZeneca speaks of Novo’s attractiveness at current levels.
Despite the lowered sales outlook (+13% -+21% vs +16%-+24%) previously, Novo will still record the best topline growth within our coverage over the foreseeable future. Despite that expected growth Novo trades in line with the sector in 25 (PE of 15.4x vs 15.2x for the sector) and with a sharp discount in 2026 (12.6x vs 13.7x). Fears on Novo future are way too excessive and Novo is now our expert's top pick in the sector. At current price (and even more so if stock is down more today), Novo is the stock to buy and hold in the sector.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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Alphavalue Morning Market Tip
Very strong Q1 but FY guidance lowered due to tariffs impact.
