Novo Nordisk
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 10/03/25, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
Expert Opinion:
There is nothing really surprising here and while this is a positive for Hikma, we don ‘t see a lot of changes for Novo Nordisk. First, US and Europe are still patent protected for another 7 years and we know that when the patent drops the sales for those drugs will fall from a cliff for Novo (and Eli Lily). But Novo also has very promising new drugs, also based on semaglutides and other dugs. These new drugs will be either easier to administer (oral version) or with a better efficacy or will help limit negative side effect such as muscle-loss. In all, there is nothing new and from our standpoint, Novo Nordisk’s equity story remains unchanged.
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Company Update:
According to an FT article, Hikma, along with its partners, is preparing to launch generic versions of Novo’s multi-blockbuster drugs Ozempic (diabetes) and Wegovy (obesity), as these drugs lose patents in some countries (China, Canada, India and Brazil) in 2026. However, for the US and Europe, these medicines are patent-protected until 2031-32. Usually, generic medicines tend to be 50-80% cheaper than the original drug. Since Ozempic and Wegovy are hugely popular drugs and the obesity rates have been increasing in many parts of the world, the patent expiry of these medicines should be a massive opportunity for generic drugmakers. Having said that, the competition should be nothing short of intense in this area. Even Sandoz is targeting a launch of generic semaglutide (underlying molecule behind Ozempic and Wegovy) in Canada and Brazil by 2026.
While launches in other parts of the world may bring volumes for generic medicine makers, a sizeable part of the value for these drugmakers should come from the launches in the US and EU, which is still some years away.
Expert Opinion:
There is nothing really surprising here and while this is a positive for Hikma, we don ‘t see a lot of changes for Novo Nordisk. First, US and Europe are still patent protected for another 7 years and we know that when the patent drops the sales for those drugs will fall from a cliff for Novo (and Eli Lily). But Novo also has very promising new drugs, also based on semaglutides and other dugs. These new drugs will be either easier to administer (oral version) or with a better efficacy or will help limit negative side effect such as muscle-loss. In all, there is nothing new and from our standpoint, Novo Nordisk’s equity story remains unchanged.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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