Kinnevik
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 10/03/26, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
Yesterday, share price collapsed following the release of a short seller report (Ningi Research) on the numerous governance shortcomings that we partially addressed (the Harald Mix case) as well as disagreements on valuation on the software side due to AI disruption fears but also claims that some accounts and past transactions are false.
The real news from this report is that Kinnevik would have sold distressed fintech investments (Lunar, Sure and XYB) to one of its employees while financing this employee’s investment for an amount of SEK 366m in April 25, raising clear questions about conflicts of interest. There would also be SEK 2.2bn of investments in start-ups related to employees that we were previously unaware of.
On the valuation side, it appears that Kinnevik uses broad peer set instead of narrow ones, leading to overvaluations on some names, including its core assets such as Spring Health or Perk. Both companies are currently valued below their latest funding rounds valuations (c.3% and c. 8% respectively). We will cross-check this claim and will use our own valuation going forward if no recent transaction occurred.
The short seller claims that Mews revenue is vastly overvalued because most revenue come from payments that should be recorded only on a net basis, but we guess investors know this feature and should take it into account when valuing the company, so it may be irrelevant valuation-wise.
However, we could verify the claims regarding the departure of most of the software investment managers that is indeed disturbing and mirrors the one that occurred in Climate Tech before the meltdown of important investments like Stegra, which should prompt us to be more conservative on the valuation of those holdings.
We thus find the current meltdown on the stock partly justified and take into account the new elements released in this report in our valuation, with our current recommendation potentially no longer accurate.
Expert Opinion:
We will dig further into the problems mentioned in the report which are serious enough. Despite the massive drop in share price, we wouldn't go into the name at this stage until we have more visibility of the reality of the underlying issues at the company and in some of its holdings.
Company Update:
Yesterday, share price collapsed following the release of a short seller report (Ningi Research) on the numerous governance shortcomings that we partially addressed (the Harald Mix case) as well as disagreements on valuation on the software side due to AI disruption fears but also claims that some accounts and past transactions are false.
The real news from this report is that Kinnevik would have sold distressed fintech investments (Lunar, Sure and XYB) to one of its employees while financing this employee’s investment for an amount of SEK 366m in April 25, raising clear questions about conflicts of interest. There would also be SEK 2.2bn of investments in start-ups related to employees that we were previously unaware of.
On the valuation side, it appears that Kinnevik uses broad peer set instead of narrow ones, leading to overvaluations on some names, including its core assets such as Spring Health or Perk. Both companies are currently valued below their latest funding rounds valuations (c.3% and c. 8% respectively). We will cross-check this claim and will use our own valuation going forward if no recent transaction occurred.
The short seller claims that Mews revenue is vastly overvalued because most revenue come from payments that should be recorded only on a net basis, but we guess investors know this feature and should take it into account when valuing the company, so it may be irrelevant valuation-wise.
However, we could verify the claims regarding the departure of most of the software investment managers that is indeed disturbing and mirrors the one that occurred in Climate Tech before the meltdown of important investments like Stegra, which should prompt us to be more conservative on the valuation of those holdings.
We thus find the current meltdown on the stock partly justified and take into account the new elements released in this report in our valuation, with our current recommendation potentially no longer accurate.
Expert Opinion:
We will dig further into the problems mentioned in the report which are serious enough. Despite the massive drop in share price, we wouldn't go into the name at this stage until we have more visibility of the reality of the underlying issues at the company and in some of its holdings.
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