Ghost IRs

Are corporates in denial? Even the proverbial taxi driver has noticed that the US economy under the Trump stewardship by decree is experiencing something akin to a change. 

Now listen to corporates either as part of their Q4 conf calls or their Q1 pre close calls. Investor Relations (IRs) are in ‘all things being equal’ mode and would not go into the tariff impacts. The leaderships of the European large caps are seemingly unable to take a stance. This is an utter shame as they are failing their obligations to the markets which also happen to be their shareholders. 

They may claim that they cannot compute the impact as things are moving too fast. This is not acceptable. Big corporates cannot claim that they do not know/have no plan B/ need time/want the dust to settle. Trump II comes after Trump I after all and his dysfunctional reality ought to have been allowed for by any corporate with a market cap north of €100m. The average market cap under AlphaValue coverage is €22bn+.

Corporates owe the markets transparency. Most by now should be in profit-warning mode as their main market is tanking. It is about time to call off their 2025 guidance which had already been looking odd as part of the 2024 FY releases as they pretended to ignore that there was a new occupant of the White House. 

The fact that 99% of European corporates are dodging their obligations should not be a justification for further prevarication. Corporate communication works both ways, i.e. bad times cannot be hidden.

The sad observation is that European corporates may well have been surprised with their pants down. A lack of preparedness will raise major concerns about the quality of the managements and the oversight of the boards. Market regulators may be well inspired to bang on the table.