Forvia

Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 27/09/24, 09:00 CET.

Company Update:
Forvia revised down its guidance for the year, now expecting sales between €26.8-27.2 billion (previously €27.5-28.5 billion), an operating margin between 5-5.3% (previously 5.6-6.4%), net cash flow below €550 million (previously above €650 million), and a net debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2x by year-end (previously below 1.9x).
The company mentions high inventories in the US and lower than expected production by OEMs. Note that this isn’t a massive surprise in view of the recent news flow in the sector.
For 25, Forvia expects production in Europe to remain subdued, likely below the 2024 but expects production in China will improve.

Expert Opinion:
We will have to slash our forecasts (again) and I guess so will the consensus. While the valuation, even on our revised numbers, will remain low, the worsening environment will likely continue in 2025. The company is expected to generate Free cash flow (even on a lowered base) meaning that the balance sheet, even though stretched, will remain manageable. We are getting close to buying level but I see no rush to jump in the name just yet.

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