BNP
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 14/04/25, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
Expert Opinion:
This is good news for BNP. The stock is back to attractive levels after the sharp bank corrections linked to the fear on a systemic risk on the financial system. While these concerns seem to alleviate, the US 10 y stand at 4.46% and needs to be monitored closely. The Basis trade is likely to keep being unwinded. Valuation is quite cheap for BNP with a PE of 6.7x for 2025 with a dividend yield of 7.5%. The risk reward on BNP is now more attractive in my opinion and is probably worth buying at these levels.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
Company Update:
On Friday, ECB said they would oppose the use of the Danish compromise for BNP regarding the acquisition of AXA IM business. Stock dropped on Friday.
This morning BNP said that:
1/ If confirmed, that wouldn’t change their interest in the deal and they would still proceed with the acquisition and
2/ Instead of a 25bp negative CET1 ratio impact, BNP expects that the acquisition of AXA IM would represent a negative 35bp CET1 ratio impact, a level much better than the 65bp estimated by certain analysts.
1/ If confirmed, that wouldn’t change their interest in the deal and they would still proceed with the acquisition and
2/ Instead of a 25bp negative CET1 ratio impact, BNP expects that the acquisition of AXA IM would represent a negative 35bp CET1 ratio impact, a level much better than the 65bp estimated by certain analysts.
BNP confirmed that the new impact would not affect the group’s objectives in terms of growth, equity and CET1 trajectory.
BNP however adjusted its objectives regarding the acquisition’s return targets: A 14% ROIC in year 3 (vs 18%) and an above 20% ROIC in year 4.
This is good news for BNP. The stock is back to attractive levels after the sharp bank corrections linked to the fear on a systemic risk on the financial system. While these concerns seem to alleviate, the US 10 y stand at 4.46% and needs to be monitored closely. The Basis trade is likely to keep being unwinded. Valuation is quite cheap for BNP with a PE of 6.7x for 2025 with a dividend yield of 7.5%. The risk reward on BNP is now more attractive in my opinion and is probably worth buying at these levels.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
Subscribe to our blog
Alphavalue Morning Market Tip
Solid start of 2025 with signs of recovery in key markets.