BBVA

Company Update:
The US has eventually opted not to renew the trade deal with Mexico and Canada.

As a reminder, this deal (USMCA) was signed in 2020 under the first Trump administration, replacing the former NAFTA, and was expected to be renegotiated this month.

This matters a lot for BBVA as Mexico is by far the largest contributor to the group’s earnings, accounting for more than 40% of our SOTP.

After a very strong performance in 2025, BBVA’ share price has underperformed the sector year to date. More precisely, it underperformed by around 15% between February and May, probably in anticipation of a less favourable deal for Mexico.

However, since May, the stock has begun to recover, potentially in anticipation of a more favourable outcome.

We understand that the end of the deal opens a long period of negotiations that could last several years.

We believe that this status quo will be seen as a relief by the market, at least in the short term. This should enable the stock to continue to overperform and we confirm our ADD recommendation on a group that enjoys very strong fundamentals.

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